制造业产业集聚如何影响生态环境

以产业集聚外部性效应为视角,利用2010-2016年天津市南港工业园、逸仙科学工业园、现代产业园与微电子工业园4个制造业产业园区面板数据,实证分析产业集聚与生态环境的双重效应关系,揭示其内在作用机制。结果表明：制造业产业集聚对生态环境存在正负两种外部性效应,具体作用取决于绿色技术创新与外商直接投资两个中介变量。当产业集聚水平较低时,绿色技术创新在制造业产业集聚对生态环境的影响关系中作用不明显。外商直接投资在制造业产业集聚与生态环境关系中起中介作用,即制造业产业集聚会加大外商直接投资规模,对生态环境产生消极影响;当产业集聚水平较高时,绿色技术创新在制造业产业集聚与生态环境的关系中起中介作用,即制造业产业集聚提高了绿色技术创新水平,对生态环境具有积极影响。外商直接投资在制造业产业集聚与生态环境关系中的作用不显著。     

Productivity spillovers through backward linkages: The role of the origin of investors and absorptive capacity of domestic firms

We argue that multinationals from different home countries have different technologies and input sourcing behavior. These differences impinge on potential productivity spillovers through backward linkages of multinationals and such effects also differ across host local firms depending on their absorptive capacity. Using a panel of Cameroonian manufacturing firms over the period 1993 to 2005, we find supportive evidence of these arguments. There is a negative relationship between the presence of American and European affiliates in downstream sectors and the productivity of Cameroonian firms in the supplying industries and a positive correlation in the case of Asian affiliates. The absorptive capacity of Cameroonian firms mainly explains these divergent results.     

对外直接投资与出口贸易的实证分析

基于1982-2003年对外直接投资与出口贸易的时间序列数据,采用向量自回归(VAR)模型方法,实证分析对外直接投资对出口贸易的影响。实证结果表明对外直接投资与出口贸易之间存在稳定的正相关关系,但无论长期还是短期对外直接投资对出口贸易的Granger因果关系都不显著,这表明对外直接投资对出口贸易的潜在作用未能得到充分发挥,因此应积极发展对外直接投资。     

我国对外贸易存在的问题及其对策

在促进我国经济发展的众多措施当中,对外开放是其中一个最重要的方面。因而,在过去的20多年当中,对外贸易一直是我国经济持续发展的动力之一。但是,从另外一个方面来看,在对外贸易发展的过程当中也出现了许多问题。如何能对这些问题有一个清醒的认识,并在此基础之上解决好这些问题是本文研究的重点所在,以期对我国的对外贸易改革与发展提出一些积极的对策。     

当前国有银行改革的政策风险与政策启示--兼论外汇储备注资的货币扩张效应

当前以外汇储备注资开始的国有银行改革试点蕴含着很高的政策风险.在微观层面,政府所有(或控制)的股权结构能否衍生出健康良好的银行公司治理机制,能否真正划清政府与银行之间的界限,本身存在疑问;在宏观层面,货币化的操作方式会加剧甚至诱发宏观不稳定.国有银行的风险归根结底是一种系统性的制度风险,是一种道德风险,最终要通过全面的体制转轨和健康、持续的经济增长来消化.     

国外商业银行社会责任的良好表现与借鉴

总体上,就企业社会责任(CSR)的实际表现而言,我国商业银行与国外同行相比,还存在不少差距.我国商业银行社会责任价值观存在某种弱化趋势,这一问题可能会最终影响其市场竞争力和可持续发展.文章探讨了国外商业银行在社会责任方面的良好表现,并结合我国商业银行实际提出了一些改进意见.     

外国直接投资与中国区域经济发展的实证分析

20世纪90年代以来FDI对中国经济发展影响越来越大。本文利用1991-2003年时间序列和横断面数据,就FDI对中国区域经济发展的短期效应和长期效应进行实证分析。结果表明在这段时间里FDI对中国区域经济非均衡发展有显著的影响,FDI促进中国区域经济发展,但是在区域间的非均衡分布又加剧了区域经济的非均衡发展。最后提出吸引更多的FDI到中西部地区、缩小区域经济差距、促进区域经济均衡发展的政策建议。     

我国进行国际税收竞争的最优战略与策略分析

本文依据国际税收竞争对我国的积极意义以及我国是发展中大国的战略定位,认为我国应该采取"积极、适度竞争,理性、必要协调"的战略;在竞争策略的选择上,通过对我国主要资本来源国对待本国资本海外投资的规定以及竞争对手国吸引外资相关做法的研究,提出我国应选择"低税率、宽税基、少优惠"的竞争方式和手段,并应注重形成有比较竞争力的税收制度,而不应进行频繁的政策调整.     

Offshore RMB Market Sees Robust Growth

【正】Thanks to China’s continued efforts in deepening financial reforms,the offshore RMB market has continued to expand rapidly,as revealed by a recent report by ...     

Forecasting China's foreign exchange reserves using dynamic model averaging: The roles of macroeconomic fundamentals,financial stress and economic uncertainty

We develop models for examining possible predictors of growth of China's foreign exchange reserves that embrace Chinese and global trade, financial and risk (uncertainty) factors. Specifically, by comparing with other alternative models, we show that the dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS) models outperform not only linear models (such as random walk, recursive OLS-AR(1) models, recursive OLS with all predictive variables models) but also the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model for examining possible predictors of growth of those reserves. The DMS is the best overall across all forecast horizons. While some predictors matter more than others over the forecast horizons, there are few that stand the test of time. The US–China interest rate differential has a superior predictive power among the 13 predictors considered, followed by the nominal effective exchange rate and the interest rate spread for most of the forecast horizons. The relative predictive prowess of the oil and copper prices alternates, depending on the commodity cycles. Policy implications are also provided.